Tata Nano.

Wired Magazine pondered that Lotus might use its Evora (above) as a platform for the Lotus EV.

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In the first few days of 2008, the price of oil passed $100 a barrel on its way to a high of $147—resulting in record prices at the pumps and a feverish demand for smaller fuel-efficient cars such as hybrids. The global downturn in the economy in the second half of the year simultaneously cut oil prices by $100, and sliced interest in hybrids and other energy-saving alternatives. Americans drove 100 billion fewer miles during the 12-month period between November 2007 and October 2008 compared with the previous year, according to the US Department of Transportation.

In a case of déjà vu, oil prices climbed 23 percent last week, the first few days of 2009.

While most forecasters expect oil to remain in the $50 to $60 range for 2009, the world’s oil supply is no less vulnerable—and perhaps even more susceptible—to geopolitical forces than it was before the financial meltdown. Last week’s upturn in oil prices were attributed to Israeli attacks in Gaza, a natural gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine, and OPEC’s announced production cuts.

Vulnerabilities are most prevalent in the world’s six major oil transit chokepoints—where the threat of terrorist attack, theft from pirates, political unrest, and shipping accidents post real dangers. More than 40 billion barrels of oil are shipped every day along these narrow channels. A single incident in one of these locations could immediately wake American consumers up from the current lull in prices—and disrupt a sense of complacency about the real costs of filling up our cars and trucks.

Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is by far the world’s most important chokepoint with an oil flow of 16 to 17 million barrels per day—roughly 20 percent of oil traded worldwide. At its narrowest point the Strait is 21 miles wide, and the shipping lanes consist of two-mile-wide channels. The majority of oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz travels to Asia, the United States and Western Europe. On average, 15 crude oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day.

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Annual sales of hybrid vehicles fell by 10 percent in 2008 compared to last year. This marks the first year that hybrid sales dropped since gas-electric cars were introduced in the United States in 2000.

In the first half of 2008, hybrid sales were on pace to exceed 2007 numbers—but the impact of the economic recession, tight credit markets, and a sharp decline in gas prices took a toll. In 2008, hybrid sales totaled approximately 315,000 units compared to 350,000 units in 2007. Nonetheless, 2008 hybrid sales outperformed the total light duty vehicle market, which fell by 18 percent.

Historically, hybrid sales have grown due to new product introductions. In 2008, the only new hybrid introductions were low-volume vehicles from General Motors and Chrysler. Throughout 2008, GM averaged approximately 1,000 hybrid sales per month—but managed to increase sales toward the end of the year. In December, GM expanded its hybrid sales to 2,555 units—with 1,729 of those sales coming from hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Tahoe, GMC Yukon, and Cadillac Escalade, all full-size SUVs. Chrysler rolled out its full-size SUV hybrids late in the year, and tallied approximately 100 sales for 2008.

The best-selling hybrid, the Toyota Prius, posted 158,884 sales in 2008, a drop of 12.3 percent from 2007. In mid-year when gas prices spiked above $4 a gallon, customers joined long waiting lists for the Prius. Those waiting lists, and general demand for hybrids, evaporated as gas prices plunged, falling below $2 a gallon by the end of the year.

Rebound in 2009?

While the fate of future hybrid sales are tied to the uncertain prospects for the entire auto industry, there are signs that hybrids will resume their growth trajectory in 2009. In April, Honda will introduce the 2010 Insight in an effort to offer high fuel economy at a price well timed for tough economic times. The new Honda Insight—selling at approximately $19,000—is expected to achieve fuel efficiency in the mid-40 mpg range.

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Fisker has announced a new concept vehicle called the Sunset or Karma S. The carmaker revealed no technical or design details about the car, and has only offered a partial detail photograph.

From the photograph, it appears that the vehicle lacks a b-pillar. That, along with its name, indicates that the Sunset is probably a convertible. The pronounced wheel arch and sharp character lines hint at the vehicle’s sporty character.

The Karma S appears to be an open-air variant to the Fisker Karma, powered by the same plug-in hybrid system. If this is true, Fisker could become the first automaker to produce a convertible hybrid for the consumer market.

The Sunset will debut, along with the production version of the Fisker Karma, on January 12th at the 2009 Detroit Auto Show.

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New research from Kajima, a Japanese company, and Tokyo University, suggests that microbes from human waste could be a good source of energy for hydrogen fuel cell cars. According to a report yesterday on Japan’s Nikkei, the company has produced a fuel cell that generates 130W from each cubic meter of waste. Kajima believes it will take another decade to commercialize the product.

One of the pipes at the Orange County Sanitation facility that transports digested sewer gas for use as an energy source. (Photo: OC Register.)

Researchers from the University of California, and administrators at California’s Orange County Sanitation District, appear to be further along. Last fall, they installed an $8 million fuel-cell device to convert human waste into hydrogen fuel. In an interview with the Orange County Register, Scott Samuelsen, director of UC Irvine's National Fuel Cell Research Center who helped develop the device, said, "The waste stream from society is being turned around, and providing energy and transportation fuel for the society. "

Idaho cows.

The Sanitation District has used methane gas from sewage to power its systems for years, but the new device—built by Air Products of Pennsylvania and FuelCell Energy of Connecticut—is able to separate the methane into three streams of energy: one to help heat the sewage, one to generate electricity, and one for storage tanks ready for use in hydrogen cars. (Of course, the cost of a practical hydrogen car will be prohibitive for many years.)

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The new 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid—the first mid-size sedan to break the 40-mpg mark in city driving—could become the hit that Ford so desperately needs. Unfortunately, Ford is already claiming that it can’t get enough hybrid batteries to meet potential demand.

In an online chat with employees last week, Ford Americas President Mark Fields said, “We are constrained by the amount of components, including batteries, that the supply base can provide us."

Ford Americas President Mark Fields.

During the peak in gas prices in mid-2008, interested shoppers were unable to purchase Ford Escape Hybrids due to lack of inventory.

The Ford Fusion hybrid leapfrogged the Toyota Camry Hybrid to claim the fuel efficiency crown for full-size four-door sedans. The official EPA numbers for the Fusion Hybrid released last week—41 in the city and 36 on the highway—could give the Detroit automaker a much needed morale boost in the midst of the deepening economic crisis. Industry observers continue to question if Ford, and other carmakers producing hybrids in relatively low quantities, are making a profit on gas-electric vehicles. Nonetheless, these companies earn public relations points for producing vehicles with high mileage.

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Hertz has launched Connect by Hertz, the first global car-sharing club offered by an international car rental company. The move puts pressure on Zipcar, currently the leader in self-service pay-as-you-go car rental services. After eight years in operation, Zipcar has yet to become profitable—despite building revenue to approximately $100 million. Zipcar recently bought Flexcar, previously its biggest rival.

Hertz will launch its car sharing service in New York, where it has an existing fleet of 40,000 rental vehicles—about seven or eight times as many as Zipcar offers. Hertz will also launch in Paris and London, where car sharing is more popular than in US cities.

The rental company will borrow a page out of Zipcar’s playbook by offering green and urban-oriented cars like the Toyota Prius and Mini Cooper. About two thirds of Zipcar's 250,000 members are under 35.

Hertz will provide stiff competition to Zipcar. Not only are all Hertz cars equipped with iPod-ready sound systems and navigation systems, the company beats Zipcar on price. After a customer has paid the $50 monthly fee, he or she can book a Prius for just $8.50 an hour or $59.50 a day, a Camry for $10.20 an hour or a Mini Cooper for $11.90 an hour. Those fees cover all expenses, including gas, insurance, and clean-up. Upon making a reservation, members receive an email confirmation as well as a text message indicating the reserved car's license plate and location. To unlock and engage the vehicle, members simply need to swipe their membership card over the car's radio-frequency identification reader.

Enterprise and U-Haul are also exploring short-term urban car sharing services.

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